Boom or Bust
With trading deadlines approaching, and in some cases past, keeper leaguers all over the country are working the phones hard trying to deal to compete this year or get solid players to build for the future. The question is, which of these players are going to be Travis Hafner, and which are going to be Brian Roberts. For those of you that just crawled from under a rock and into the world of fantasy baseball, countless teams dumped Roberts last year under the premise that he was a true five tool stud at a thin infield position. Not only did they fetch a fair premium in their deal, but his performance was awful in the second half of last year (even before his terrible injury). It is important to look not only at the 250-350 ABs that the player has had this year, but the trend in the numbers over the course of several years or even over a career.
Vernon Wells. Man is this guy on the top of my list of players for the future. Well hyped while working his way through the minors, he arrived and had 100 RBI in his first full season. Since then it has been a roller coaster ride with his stats. A huge second year primed his owners to expect continued stud performances, but they were ultimately disappointed. However, when team factors are taken into consideration, and the fact that he is still on the good side of age 30, he is a gamble well worth taking. A little lineup protection and the dream of challenging for the NL East will tend to bring out the best in a good hitter.
Jermaine Dye. I am not a believer. With two great first years under his belt, it all fell apart with one foul ball. He broke his leg, and apparently needed about 3 years to recover from it. One reason which I refuse to trade for him while his value is so high is because he is very much a first half performer. In his last two years (years that believers will point to as evidence he is good) the drop-off from his stats in the second half is dramatic. 7 and 9 HR less, respectively, in the second half of the last two years. Two years ago, he hit about 50 pts lower in the second half. Put that together with his age over 31, it adds up to a bad gamble for teams looking for a keeper. Hmmmmm, sure thing stud? I’ll pass, thanks.
Raul Ibanez. He’s too old. He needs 4 more HR to tie his career high mark. He plays at SAFECO. The team is not good. Someone check this guy for HGH. Can he help you win if you draft him, yes. Should you think for one second that this guy is worth holding onto for more than $1, no.
Rickie Weeks. BUY BUY BUY!!!! I like him. Don’t expect him to grow into a huge power threat, but if you are looking for “Chase Utley light”, then this is your man. He has shown great improvement over his second season, raising his batting average 40 pts. His OBP is solid, and he can clearly steal a base. The infield is thin, so grab this guy if you can, he should be good for at least 3-4 more years of production at similar levels, and wont cost the same as good-ol’ Chutley.
And Finally. . . .
Corey Patterson. Those Buzz faithful know that this poor guy has taken a beating on these pages. Time after time, his stats are given a big “pfffffft” by the regular blogger. Yet, how long can they go ignored? I was reading about this guy 3 years before he came to the bigs, drooling over his talent. 14HR-18SB-.253BA his first year. 13-16-.298 in his second. 24-32-.266 in his third. OK, clearly he is not going to win any batting titles in his future. But instead of citing a lack of talent or motivation as his problem in 2005, I would point to Dusty Baker and his apparent hatred of young players. At every turn, Patterson was bashed instead of coached, the organization not willing to put forth the effort. “Wait!” you say? “The Cubs made a mistake? NO!?” Yes folks, you heard it here first, the Cubs can’t make a correct decision outside of letting Sammy Sosa go. (remember him?). Gobble him up, and ride the next few seasons of his 20+hrs and 30+sbs.
Til next time, remember. Buy low, sell high!
The above article was written by new RotoBuzz writer Keith Giordano.
Look for more of his writings throughout the second half this season.
Vernon Wells. Man is this guy on the top of my list of players for the future. Well hyped while working his way through the minors, he arrived and had 100 RBI in his first full season. Since then it has been a roller coaster ride with his stats. A huge second year primed his owners to expect continued stud performances, but they were ultimately disappointed. However, when team factors are taken into consideration, and the fact that he is still on the good side of age 30, he is a gamble well worth taking. A little lineup protection and the dream of challenging for the NL East will tend to bring out the best in a good hitter.
Jermaine Dye. I am not a believer. With two great first years under his belt, it all fell apart with one foul ball. He broke his leg, and apparently needed about 3 years to recover from it. One reason which I refuse to trade for him while his value is so high is because he is very much a first half performer. In his last two years (years that believers will point to as evidence he is good) the drop-off from his stats in the second half is dramatic. 7 and 9 HR less, respectively, in the second half of the last two years. Two years ago, he hit about 50 pts lower in the second half. Put that together with his age over 31, it adds up to a bad gamble for teams looking for a keeper. Hmmmmm, sure thing stud? I’ll pass, thanks.
Raul Ibanez. He’s too old. He needs 4 more HR to tie his career high mark. He plays at SAFECO. The team is not good. Someone check this guy for HGH. Can he help you win if you draft him, yes. Should you think for one second that this guy is worth holding onto for more than $1, no.
Rickie Weeks. BUY BUY BUY!!!! I like him. Don’t expect him to grow into a huge power threat, but if you are looking for “Chase Utley light”, then this is your man. He has shown great improvement over his second season, raising his batting average 40 pts. His OBP is solid, and he can clearly steal a base. The infield is thin, so grab this guy if you can, he should be good for at least 3-4 more years of production at similar levels, and wont cost the same as good-ol’ Chutley.
And Finally. . . .
Corey Patterson. Those Buzz faithful know that this poor guy has taken a beating on these pages. Time after time, his stats are given a big “pfffffft” by the regular blogger. Yet, how long can they go ignored? I was reading about this guy 3 years before he came to the bigs, drooling over his talent. 14HR-18SB-.253BA his first year. 13-16-.298 in his second. 24-32-.266 in his third. OK, clearly he is not going to win any batting titles in his future. But instead of citing a lack of talent or motivation as his problem in 2005, I would point to Dusty Baker and his apparent hatred of young players. At every turn, Patterson was bashed instead of coached, the organization not willing to put forth the effort. “Wait!” you say? “The Cubs made a mistake? NO!?” Yes folks, you heard it here first, the Cubs can’t make a correct decision outside of letting Sammy Sosa go. (remember him?). Gobble him up, and ride the next few seasons of his 20+hrs and 30+sbs.
Til next time, remember. Buy low, sell high!
The above article was written by new RotoBuzz writer Keith Giordano.
Look for more of his writings throughout the second half this season.
posted by Howard Bender at
11:49 PM
